Morning, Tuesday, 12th January 2027
Online
This conference will examine next steps for prisons and probation in England and Wales, as implementation of reform under the Sentencing Act 2026 changes how and when people move from custody into the community.
Overall areas for discussion include early experience of the progression model and changes to recall, public protection and victims, prison conditions and readiness for release, probation capacity and professional practice, and the resettlement support on which reintegration after release depends.
The conference will bring together stakeholders and policymakers following commencement of early releases in October 2026 under the progression model, with implementation phased across ten tranches to June 2027. Delegates will assess what early implementation of the scheme is showing about the readiness of probation, prisons and partner services, looking at how risk assessment, victim notification, license conditions, and supervision work in practice. What is needed to maintain the confidence of sentencers, victims and the wider public will also be discussed, in the context of the Lord Chancellor recently announcing expansion of the Future Skills Programme and a focus on reducing reoffending through employment, accommodation, and community-based supervision.
How wider developments are being sequenced and whether they provide a workable operating model across custody and the community will also be considered. These include the Independent Review of the Prison System due to report by the end of 2026, the consultation on statutory regulation of probation practitioners which closed in October, and the HMPPS Business Strategy 2026-2029 setting out delivery priorities.
Sessions will explore what changes to release arrangements and community supervision mean for those engaged in the framework for successful release and rehabilitation, including local authorities and housing providers, health and substance-use services, employers and education providers, voluntary and community organisations, and people leaving custody and their families. Delegates will consider how additional demand as activity shifts from prison to the community can be planned for and resourced, and approaches to maintaining continuity of support across organisational boundaries and between national, local and devolved arrangements in Wales.
Release arrangements, sentencing reform & public protection
Sessions will examine how the new release and recall model is operating as the different release phases take effect, and priorities for maintaining court confidence in community sentences and supervision retain.
Areas for discussion include:
- progression model: sequencing of release tranches to June 2027 - offence exclusions and additional time in custody for non-compliance - readiness of probation and partner services
- release and recall: 56-day recall model for standard determinate sentences and public-protection exclusions - implications for continuity of supervision and capacity - addressing repeated recall
- licence conditions and monitoring: tailoring to risk and need - reliability of monitoring and proportionate responses to breach - practical effects on people released and families
- victim and public protection:
- risk assessment and information-sharing before release - communication about licence conditions - safeguards for higher-risk cohorts
- expanded use of supervision tools, including electronic monitoring, curfews, exclusion zones and new restriction zones - effectiveness, proportionality and public confidence
- HM Inspectorate of Probation’s Dynamic Inspection of Public Protection - risk assessment, information-sharing and workforce resilience
- community sentences and confidence:
- implementation of the community sentence progression model and changes affecting suspended sentences
- evidence on outcomes and reoffending from the Intensive Supervision Courts programme
Prison conditions, rehabilitation & readiness for release
Discussion will consider conditions across the prison estate as it adjusts to new release points, as well as key issues influencing sentence progression and preparation for release.
Areas for discussion include:
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- safety, security and regimes:
- overcrowding, staffing pressures and restricted regimes - violence, illicit drugs and drug-recovery provision
- access to purposeful activity and sentence progression - Justice Committee’s Rehabilitation and resettlement: ending the cycle of reoffending report
- education, work and treatment: skills and preparation for employment - measuring impact of rehabilitation programmes - links with employers and providers beyond the gate
- accommodation: implementing new pathways into stable housing - practical barriers to delivery
- release planning in custody: sentence progression under changing release dates - resettlement planning and information handover to probation - remand prisoners and complex cases
- Independent Review of the Prison System:
- implications for long-term capacity, estate condition and workforce resilience
- prison leadership, operational autonomy and national oversight - progress on inspection
Probation capacity, workforce & professional practice
The agenda will also examine the capacity and professional framework for probation as it takes on a larger share of supervision. We expect discussion to draw on NAO and Public Accounts Committee scrutiny of the pace of change and its risks for public protection and rehabilitation.
Areas for discussion include:
- caseloads and workforce:
- capacity requirements as responsibilities increase - recruitment and retention - balance between experienced and newly qualified practitioners
- tackling staffing shortages, workforce instability, vetting delays and pressures on public protection practice
- staff safety and wellbeing - access to training and professional support
- risk management and supervision: professional judgement and time for assessment and supervision - tiering and contact arrangements - quality assurance and organisational improvement
- professional regulation:
- standards, continuing development and fitness to practise - implications for professional identity and the risk of additional burden
- next steps following the Ministry of Justice Independent statutory regulation of probation practitioners consultation
- simplification, digital tools and AI: potential effect on workload, risk management and professional judgement - information governance and evaluation - relationship-based practice
Resettlement, reintegration & continuity of support
Further discussion will focus on probation and partner support in the weeks immediately after release, issues determining whether licence conditions are met, and access to accommodation, support and work.
Areas for discussion include:
- accommodation: availability on day of release - risk of homelessness - priorities for local authorities and housing providers - implications for licence compliance and recall
- health, wellbeing & substance use: continuity of treatment and prescribing through release - joint working between the NHS and probation - consent, trust and information-sharing
- employment, education & skills: employer engagement and pathways into work - continuity of learning after release - sustaining desistance and the role of employment
- voluntary & community capacity: additional demand from new release arrangements - commissioning, funding and timely information from statutory partners - continuity of support
- tailored support: women, people with complex needs and those released after recall or remand - family and community links - coordination across national, local and devolved provision in Wales
All delegates will be able to contribute to the output of the conference, which will be shared with parliamentary, ministerial, departmental and regulatory offices, and more widely. This includes the full proceedings and additional articles submitted by delegates. As well as key stakeholders, those already due to attend include parliamentary pass-holders from the House of Commons and officials from HM Prison and Probation Service; Ministry of Defence; Ministry of Justice; Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade; National Audit Office; Home Office; and The Scottish Government.
